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 (Click for interactive map*)

In 2020, according to the PIIA presented at municipal meetings, there were about two dozen new house construction projects accepted. In 2021, as in 2022, it was about thirty.
The beginning of 2020 marked the arrival of the pandemic in Canada and caused a significant contraction in the real estate market. Government measures adopted to slow the spread of the virus, as well as the uncertainty and fear of citizens during the first months, influenced the real estate market in Quebec. However, this contraction phenomenon was very brief, and we witnessed a spectacular turnaround the following year (2021). Le marché immobilier 2021 et la Covid-19

In 2022, the "record median property prices and the rise in mortgage rates ... nevertheless slowed down real estate sales". Le marché immobilier au Québec en 2022 et ses perspectives pour 2023

In 2020, there were concentrations of residential projects in District 5, in the Domaine du lac St-Victor, as well as, in 2021 and 2022, on Jackson and Lac-Noiret roads. In 2022, the south of Lake Wentworth, in District 2, and an area northeast of Saint-Michel, in District 1, with the Cabanes du Trappeur and Domaine Nouvelle France, were added.

In 2020 and 2021, new projects were more scattered in Districts 4 and 5. In Laurel, in District 3, projects were rarer.

It can be hypothesized that a penetration of the territory continues to be exercised, coming from Morin-Heights, and possibly from Lachute. The large lakes, Saint-François-Xavier, Saint-Victor, Notre-Dame, and Wentworth, which are easily accessible, are the favorites of this enthusiasm. However, the real estate development of Laurel is still awaited.

By Carl Chapdelaine

(Update in progress, cf. French version)

Inventory on interactive map, according to announced Plan d'implantation et d'intégration architecturale (PIIA) (Site Planning and Architectural Integration Program) registrations, since 2020.

Average property value, by year. (coming soon)

Interactive map: click on Google My Maps (Uncheck boxes to isolate a year.)

[: 2020 and 2021 (orange/yellow), 2022 (blue), 2023 (violet), 2024 (wine red)]

New construction in 2022 (Based on announced PIIAs and building value on the assessment roll, for fiscal years 2023 to 2025, on GeoCentralis):
Number of PIIA: 30 + 15 not assessed.

By electoral district (visualized approximately on the interactive map):

1. 14
2.  8
3.  3
4.  1
5. 13
6.  6

Average value (30 units): $573,000
Median value (30 units) : $469,500 (The median is the midpoint of a data set, such that 50% of units have a value less than or equal to the median and 50% of units have a value greater than or equal to the median. Statistics Canada)
(Copilot calculations)

The highest value is $2 million; the building is located on Chemin des Berges-du-Nord, on Lac Saint-Victor. Lac St-Victor Estates is also home to a concentration of new luxury homes.

Google My Maps        GeoCentralis

By Carl Chapdelaine

The population of the Pays-d'en-Haut will continue to grow rapidly from 2023 to 2024, after slowing from 2022 to 2023, and should reach 50,000 by 2025. However, we would need to know the evolution of the number of vacationers to have a clearer picture of the situation for all Pays-d'en-Haut residents.

At 53%, the percentage of the working population in the 20 to 64 age bracket continues to decline, to the benefit of younger and older residents. Those aged 65 and over now make up 32% of the population. The number of workers in the 25-64 age group was still on the rise, however, as the proportion of workers had also increased.

Net migration, still positive, regained momentum from 2022 to 2023, after a sharp slowdown from 2021 to 2022. Towards the end of the period from 2019 to 2020, the Covid 19 epidemic had led to an exodus from the metropolis to the Laurentians and other outlying regions of Montreal. Based on forecasts to the year 2041, and in line with net migration for the Laurentians as a whole, the Pays-d'en-Haut's net migration will continue to be largely positive.

Median employment income had continued to rise between 2022 and 2023, reaching $54,000.

Par Carl Chapdelaine

Institut de la statistique du Québec      

According to this projection, the (permanent) population of Wentworth-Nord will increase from 1686 in 2021, to 1898 in 2041; that is 12,6%. The map showing the position of Quebec municipalities, over nine categories of percentage change, indicates that Wentworth-Nord would have a higher percentage increase than the average for all of Quebec, even compared to its neighbors, Saint-Adolphe-d'Howard or Lac-des-Seize-Îles.

But does the methodology used in this projection, which incorporates the evolution of the age pyramid, take into account certain factors that can affect population growth, such as geographic location, the economy or the impact of vacationing on the municipality's development?

Par Carl Chapdelaine

Carte        Méthodologie      Projections selon le groupe d'âge

(Summary with Copilot following)

We've already noted that real estate development currently favours the Montfort sector and is an economic engine for the municipality as a whole. But what will be the basis for development in Laurel or Saint-Michel?

By intervening in land use planning, the administration of Wentworth-Nord can attempt to re-establish a certain spatial balance in this respect. For example, it could seek to counterbalance the natural formation of a development pole, as is currently the case on the Montfort side, by consolidating the administrative vocation of the Laurel sector; the same goes for the strengthening of tourism or forestry activities in the Saint-Michel sector, if these lend themselves to public intervention. Spatial planning and the environment But these consolidations will not be enough to ensure the desired development of these sectors.

More than a century of history has put our three villages where they are today. The birth of Montfort was associated with that of its orphanage, while the forestry industry added to the village's prosperity. With the closure of the orphanage and the disappearance of the forestry industry, the resort industry took over.

Saint-Michel's growth has also benefited from its forestry industry. Balado Discovery  Cyril Gagné, Wentworth-Nord's last true logger, owned a sawmill there that ceased lumber production in 1958. According to his grandson, Pierre Gagné, the mill produced mainly hemlock railway ties.

Logging was also carried out for the Carrière sawmill in Lachute. Forestry is still an economic activity in Saint-Michel. However, vacationing and the construction industry it spawned had to take over the village's economy, while expanding towards Laurel. But it may not be able to ensure the sector's development on its own. Homes here are generally less upscale than in Lac-St-Victor Estate.

Located halfway between Saint-Michel and Montfort, the hamlet of Laurel, a land of settlers combining agriculture and forestry, has taken advantage of its geographical location and the richness of its subsoil to develop and become the administrative center of the region.¹ This subsoil abounds in diopside, graphite, calcite, mica, kaolin and feldspar. “It's not surprising that between 1899 and 1923, several mines were commercially exploited here” Le hameau de Laurel  However, these operations ceased due to a lack of profitability, while today, the hunt for mining claims has led municipal authorities to ban all mid-tier mining.

Laurel's role as the municipality's administrative center has been consolidated. At the same time, early resort development around its lakes, as in Montfort, still provides a stable economic base. But these resources have failed to maintain an acceptable economic level for its permanent residents, a significant proportion of whom have reached retirement age. Many of them now rely on pension schemes or other government assistance. And there's nothing on the horizon to rejuvenate these households or improve their situation.

The Census of Canada provides us with employment data for Wentworth-Nord's active population. However, we have to rely on other sources of information, often unquantifiable, to break down the data according to one or other of the municipality's sectors. In 2021, of the 770 permanent residents of Wentworth-Nord employed, construction accounted for the largest number, 100, or 21.3%. This was followed by health care and social assistance, with 95; retail trade, with 85; professional, scientific and technical services, tied with manufacturing, with 80 each; and accommodation and food services, with 60.

Some 58% of these residents had a regular place of work, but for less than 15% of them, it was in Wentworth-Nord. The majority of jobs are therefore outside the municipality. This raises the danger of jobholders leaving the municipality for the one in which they are employed, as well as the danger of them not being replaced by a new workforce, for the same reason.

However, these figures do not allow us to clearly identify the job categories specific to Wentworth-Nord. Yet the importance of construction suggests that it is a major source of local employment.

For a remote center like Laurel, telecommuting can serve to counteract the negative effects of this factor on the attractiveness of the workforce, and not only. Since the Covid pandemic and the consequent need to stay at home, a proportion of the municipality's second homes, as seen at Lake Saint-François-Xavier, and especially when changing ownership, have become main homes. While the resort sector may seem to be shrinking due to this phenomenon, it is gaining in permanent population and potential economic impact.

For the village, isn't the challenge then to provide the essential services that will enable a household connected to telecommuting to enjoy an environment that meets its needs? Here, Laurel could get a head start on the competition by attracting teleworkers and electric vehicle owners, or their future followers, to take advantage of an accelerated roll-out of charging stations, allowing them even greater autonomy. At the same time, Hydro-Québec should be able to offer attractive rates for their installation and use. As the race to the gas station is no longer the negative factor from which our capital suffers in particular, courting this community of teleworkers in particular should bear fruit.

After analyzing the type of occupation that characterizes these latter households, we could perhaps adjust the public or other services that suit them. If the household includes school-age children, however, the challenge is considerable; and transportation to Saint-Sauveur, for the youngest, must be presented to them as an acceptable routine. Indeed, the return of elementary school to the neighborhood doesn't seem to be on the radar of higher authorities.

The resort industry still plays an important role in the Laurel area. Does it, in itself, offer an opportunity for expansion? The village, almost at the foot of the immense Lake Des-Seize-Îles, an incomparable jewel, hardly benefits from this prestigious tourist or resort asset. Wouldn't there be room for hotel accommodation, which would lead to the development of adjoining services at Laurel? Given its immensity, its carrying capacity - that is, the maximum pressure that can be exerted on its ecosystem without compromising its integrity - should not be a problem. Does the fact that we fall within the territory of another municipality prevent us from thinking big on this front?

Unlike the Montfort area, the Laurel sector does not seem to us to be resistant to tourism development. To encourage its development, as perhaps at the foot of Lac Des-Seize-Îles, the municipality, here in collaboration with that of Lac-des-Seize-Îles, should count on the participation of the MRC. The latter has been entrusted with greater powers of intervention in the field of territorial development, using programs aimed at disadvantaged municipalities, such as the Fonds régions et ruralité.²

One of the challenges facing the MRC des Pays-d'en-Haut is to capitalize on the region's recreational and tourism potential and its natural attractions. Wentworth-Nord could also appeal to provincial ministries, as they have been instructed to adapt their programs to benefit this strategy.

If Laurel's future depends first and foremost on the consolidation of its profitable sectors, the involvement of municipal authorities and local organizations, including cooperatives, will have to be the starting point. The appeal for government assistance, for which our governments give preference to municipalities suffering from or close to devitalization, as mentioned above, must then be put forward.

There are some remarkable examples in Quebec of devitalized villages that have been able to pull themselves out of their underdevelopment; on the edge of Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Moffet, is one of them. “Moffet had lost its school, its general store, its caisse populaire, its gas pump...”. Ten years later, after betting everything on the development of local services, “...the village is bursting with services, attracting families, and has increased its population by 27%...” ³

Another development option envisaged by the former mayor, who claimed to be able to play in the big league, was the creation of a capital fund for economic development, including the purchase of land in Laurel for industrial development.⁴ An ambitious project, which he had to set aside in the face of opposition from council members and their constituents, concerned about the merits of this initiative and the risk of having to invest a significant portion of the meagre municipal budget in it. Such an undertaking, from a municipality far removed from any services, would be seen as no less risky today. However, this avenue was still under consideration in 2024, in the amended draft Urban Plan.⁵

For its part, the creation of the Chambre de commerce et de développement durable de Wentworth-Nord could help bring entrepreneurs together; an essential step, since the consolidation and expansion of the sectors in which they operate will not take place without their collaboration.⁶

In addition, the realization of the affordable housing mandate recently awarded by the municipality should increase the supply of housing units. Among other things, it would encourage working households to stay in their communities, rather than moving away to their place of work. It could also enable elderly or impoverished homeowners to sell their homes to younger, wealthier households, while continuing to live in their respective communities.

By Carl Chapdelaine

Analysis of "Laurel Tomorrow" by Copilot:
1. Population Projections: According to projections, the population of Wentworth-Nord is expected to increase from 1,686 inhabitants in 2021 to 1,898 in 2041, representing a 12.6% increase¹.
2. Demographic Evolution: The population of Pays-d’en-Haut continues to grow rapidly, and it is expected to reach 50,000 inhabitants by 2025. However, the proportion of people aged 20 to 64, representing the working population, is decreasing in favor of younger and older age groups².
3. Development of Laurel and Saint-Michel: Real estate development currently favors the Montfort sector, but the municipality of Wentworth-Nord can intervene to balance spatial development by consolidating the administrative and tourist vocations of the Laurel and Saint-Michel sectors³.
4. Employment and Local Economy: In 2021, construction was the main source of employment in Wentworth-Nord, followed by healthcare, retail, and professional services⁴.
5. Wildfires: Wildfires pose a significant risk to the region, and concrete measures such as using fire-resistant building materials and creating buffer zones around homes can help mitigate the impact⁵.
6. Social Life and Clubs: The creation of local clubs can strengthen community ties and the sense of belonging among residents, inspired by existing models like the FADOQ Network6.
😊

1. Église et développement de Laurel
2. New government land-use planning guidelines (OGAT)
3. Le miracle de Moffet, le petit village québécois revitalisé avec audace
4. 349 signatures!
5. Modification au Plan d’urbanisme de Wentworth-Nord, de 2017
6. Real estate, resort, tourism

Neighborhoods in Los Angeles ravaged by forest fires - a reminder that the disruption of natural elements caused by habitat development can have major negative consequences. In 2023, didn't forest fires force the evacuation of 220,000 homes across Canada?¹ Quebec was the hardest-hit province. The smoke and smell of burning wood even enveloped the distant metropolis.

The construction of houses and cottages in the Laurentians, outside urban centers, meets specific criteria that differentiate them from city residences. Wood siding is favored for its natural, aesthetic appeal. Asphalt shingle roofing can be reminiscent of cedar shingle roofing, while this material, which has an ecological impact, requires a lower initial cost than metal roofing.

Shouldn't the balance between appearance, a more affordable investment, and the security of our home be recalculated? With the new rule favoring the density of the latter; with the implementation of the era of integrated projects; with increasingly restrictive protection of our forest cover; aren't we putting ourselves at greater risk of facing the eventuality of forest fires in our Pays-d'en-Haut? Wouldn't a winter with less snow and a spring without precipitation, for example, be enough for a fire to break out?

Concrete strategies to prepare homes and communities for forest fires² do exist, however, to limit the impact of such an eventuality. Do our PIIA criteria incorporate the recommended choice of building materials, location of the house and its accessory buildings in their topographical environment, establishment of a buffer zone around the house, selection of hardwoods rather than softwoods, landscaping or other wildfire protection measures?

“FireSmart Canada” presents us with sketches and tables to illustrate its recommendations on the ‘residential flammability zone’, on the ‘fire-smart home’, on site maintenance, on tree pruning, etc., or on the affordability of the various measures.² It even introduces us to the ‘FireSmart® Begins at Home’ application for our cell phone, capable of telling us what specific actions to take on our property to reduce the risk of fire.

“FireSmart Canada also offers a “Home Assessment Program”, “launched in 2022 in Paradise, California, a town that suffered severe damage during the 2018 Camp Fire”, and supported by insurance. But while these measures are aimed directly at homeowners, they must first and foremost rely on the support of communities; MRCs and municipalities are therefore called upon to be the prime movers behind their implementation.

By Carl Chapdelaine

1. Protégez votre maison contre les feux de forêt avec une construction ou une rénovation résiliente  
2. Préparation aux feux de forêt : Des conseils pratiques pour renforcer la résilience des résidences et des collectivités du Canada

Our article of December 6, “Bringing citizens together”, was inspired by the success of the Montfort Christmas Potluck, initiated by Diana Zakaib Jegou. In it, we discovered the interest of residents in getting together for this type of activity and hoped that it would engender a movement of solidarity. Creating links between citizens, developing a sense of belonging to a community seemed achievable. But we weren't offering anything concrete to achieve these goals.

Traditionally, and still today, social activities in Montfort have revolved around sporting events, or those emerging from the lake association or parish: the Regatta, the Ski Marathon, ice golf (with Super Bolf day), the corn roast, and so on. It had to rely on the initiative of family members, enterprising citizens or said organizations. Sporting events were crowned with medals or trophies, and ended with festivities.

Since our arrival at Lake Saint-François-Xavier in 2003, we'd also noticed that small groups of walkers were taking advantage of the Aerobic Corridor to go hiking. These hikes offer greater proximity than cycling, although the latter is certainly a feature of the Corridor.

These small groups may be made up of friends or neighbors who have known each other for a long time, who live near the lake, who share the same language or some other common value, but who do not submit to any formal structure. Wouldn't it be possible to form clubs from these nuclei, inviting everyone to join in, as Diana's café does? There would be no language or political barriers.

Saint-Michel has its Cercle de Fermières Saint-Michel/Pine-Hill; its Groupe de la Sagesse Saint-Michel/Pine Hill. Laurel has its Club de l'Étoile du Nord. But it is on nautical activities that we find the Viking Canoe & Kayak Club, emblematic of Lake Saint-François-Xavier. In many Quebec villages, clubs are an integral part of social life. If you've just moved here from the metropolis and are looking to fit in, you'd do well to join one of these clubs.

The fashion for walking clubs, or other activities, seems to be spreading fast in Quebec. Often less demanding than sports clubs, they appeal to everyone, although they are often dedicated to a specific age group. Some clubs are even federated across Quebec. Such is the case with the FADOQ network, which counts over eight hundred clubs, including some in the Pays-d'en-Haut, such as Les 4 Saisons d'Adolphe, in the neighboring municipality. FADOQ can help organize your club. We should also be able to count on Loisirs Laurentides.

The Club 50 ans + de Claude-Robillard, which benefits from the collaboration and subsidy of the Ville de Montréal and uses the facilities of this sports complex, is open to all citizens of the Greater Montreal region. In addition to sporting activities, such a club offers its members social events, from sugar shack visits to Christmas dinners. With 700 members, it has its own board of directors.

Lake associations, when they are not aimed at a whole community, could form clubs, whose vocation would no longer be focused on preserving waterways, but on social activity.

Village clubs could join forces at the level of a sector, then the municipality. Occasionally, and with greater resources, certain activities would therefore be aimed at all Wentworth-Nord clubs, just as town meetings are. This would foster a sense of belonging and bring citizens from all sectors closer together.

The municipality, which has just “recognized” various groups on its territory, in order to offer them a few advantages, should have given the necessary push to set up such associations. But these associations would have their own authority, even an autonomous board of directors.

By Carl Chapdelaine